MY PICKS: I’m making my picks early. This is my order of likely winners.
(1) Tiger Woods – The loss to Oglivy at Doral a few weeks ago will have Tiger fired up. Augusta is perfect for his game. The only thing that might hurt is chances is if the course it too soft. That will balance out the field and allow some of the less skilled players to play target golf on the tricky greens.
(2) Phil Mickelson – He’s been playing well for the most part with one win, one second, and seven of eight cuts made. He’s got the length and is gaining more discipline. Despite Phil being a former champion, this is the riskiest top-six pick for me. He’ll definitely make the cut, but will he be in contention come Sunday?
(3) Geoff Oglivy – This guy is playing great. Last time I saw him he was staking everything from everywhere at Doral. His funny looking swing holds up under pressure against even the most formidable of opponents. He’s won a U.S. Open, so we know he can close.
(4) KJ Choi – He won early in 2008 and has played consistently well since then. I keep pulling for this guy to win a major, and I think Augusta is a great chance for him. K.J.’s putting is a little suspect, but he has a great greens-in-regulation percentage. He should probably be higher than 4 on this list.
(5) Vijay Singh – I don’t know what to make of Vijay lately. He’s got this funky new swing where he drags the club inside and tries to draw the ball more. That’s a good shot for Augusta, which is known as a right-to-left course, if he’s got it under control. Singh has won before, can hit the long ball, and has been practicing and resting at home in preparation. He should be close come Sunday.
(6) J.B. Holmes OR Steve Stricker
Kentucky native J.B. Holmes hits the ball a long long way, which is great for Augusta. He’s won once already this year and has been playing well. However, this is his first Masters.
Steve Stricker has never won a major, but he’s got a lot of experience and has been playing very consistently for the past year. I definitely think he’ll make the cut and be near the top come Sunday, though I’m not sure he’ll threaten the leaders.
I got rid of Padraig Harrington from my top six because he’s not playing well, and has let me down when I’ve picked him before.
WINNING SCORE: -9
It’s been raining and the course is very soft, which eliminates Augusta’s main defense of hard and fast greens. Zach Johnson’s winning score of +1 last year was an anomaly. The weather was cold and tricky. Since 2002, excluding last year, the highest winning score has been -7 and the lowest winning score -12. Look for it to fall within that range this year.